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Dangerous Severe Weather Threat Today!

Posted on October 3, 2016 at 2:05 PM


A dangerous severe weather threat is possible this evening across South Central Kansas with the chance of baseball sized hail and destructive 75 mph straight line winds. Flooding is also a concern. Here is today's SPC Outlook.


...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OK...

 

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY...

 

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...


 

SUMMARY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS NORTHWARD

INTO PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE

GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE

HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...WILL BE ACROSS

PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.


 

SYNOPSIS

RELATED TO AN EAST/NORTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING UPPER

TROUGH...STRENGTHENING/CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL

CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER MO

VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH-EMBEDDED UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT OVER

THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX

OVERSPREADS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER LATER

TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY.


 

SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING KS/OK

CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT EARLY

THIS MORNING FROM EAST-CENTRAL NEB SOUTHWARD INTO

NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL OK. WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL

PERSIST...ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY EARLY TODAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...A MODERATELY MOIST AIR MASS FOR THE

SEASON WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD...WITH MOSTLY LOWER/MIDDLE 60S

F SURFACE DEWPOINTS /WHICH ARE AS FAR NORTH AS NORTH-CENTRAL TX AS

OF 12Z/ BECOMING INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS OK INTO

CENTRAL/EASTERN KS. A 13.5 G/KG MEAN-MIXING RATIO WAS NOTED IN THE

12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM FORT WORTH THIS MORNING /ROUGHLY 90TH

PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY/. GIVEN ANTICIPATED DIURNAL

HEATING/MIXING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EARLY-DAY DEPARTING

CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN UPWARDS OF 1000-2000

J/KG MLCAPE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST-MOVING

COLD FRONT ACROSS KS AND NEAR/EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS OK.

 

AIDED BY INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE

EAST/NORTHEASTWARD-EJECTING BASED-EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND

ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX ALOFT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP

AS EARLY AS 20Z-21Z ACROSS CENTRAL KS NEAR THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL

DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KS /INCLUDING WICHITA

VICINITY/ INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY

EVENING...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE AND NEAR THE

FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION AND POINTS SOUTHWARD.

 

SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL WILL INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE...AND AT

LEAST SOME TORNADO RISK SHOULD EXIST AS WELL PARTICULARLY ACROSS

SOUTH-CENTRAL KS/NORTH-CENTRAL OK TOWARD/JUST AFTER SUNSET.

STORMS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH

A QUASI-LINEAR MODE EVOLVING ESPECIALLY ACROSS KS INTO SOUTHEAST NEB

GIVEN THE FRONT-RELATED FORCING AND BACKED MID-LEVEL WINDS. THIS

SHOULD PROMOTE THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER BY

AROUND MID-EVENING...WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS

CONTINUING/SPREADING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS/FAR

NORTHEAST OK THROUGH THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

 

TO THE SOUTH OF NORTH-CENTRAL OK...STORM COVERAGE IS MORE UNCERTAIN

WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL

OK...WITH A NOTABLE ABSENCE OF DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT

DEPICTED IN MOST 00Z/06Z-BASED DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND

HIGHER-RESOLUTION CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS/RELATED ENSEMBLES.

WHILE A COUPLE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY TRY TO DEVELOP/REMAIN

SUSTAINED PRESUMING SUFFICIENT NEAR-DRYLINE

HEATING/MIXING...CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED BY RELATIVELY MODEST

NEAR-DRYLINE CONFLUENCE/CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL.

REGARDLESS...SUPERCELL-CONDUCIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND BUOYANCY WOULD

YIELD AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK IF/WHERE STORMS DEVELOP AND REMAIN

SUSTAINED ACROSS OK...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MORE

DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE VIA DRYLINE-NORMAL-ORIENTED

DEEP-LAYER-SHEAR VECTORS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A LARGE

HAIL/TORNADO RISK APPEARS MOST PROBABLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OK NEAR

THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION...BUT THESE THREATS CANNOT BE

DISCOUNTED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS OK SHOULD STORMS INDEED FORM BY

EARLY EVENING.



Here is the Hazardous Weather Outlook from the National Weather Service in Wichita, Kansas.

 

TODAY AND TONIGHT

 

THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE MORNING. SMALL

HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

 

A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE

AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE

SEVERE WITH UP TO BASEBALL SIZED HAIL AND WINDS TO 70 MPH. THERE

WILL BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A BRIEF TORNADO OVER SOUTH CENTRAL

KANSAS. HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS

EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLINT HILLS.

 


WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

 

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT

THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND SEVERE

STORMS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

 

SOME FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER

THE FLINT HILLS.


AWN will be starting severe weather coverage around around 3:20 PM. We ask that everyone stay tuned to local TV and radio and stay tuned to the AWL Weather Network for the latest updates as they become available. Stay tuned for updates.

Categories: Weather Stories, News Stories, Local News

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